With the 2008 Election drawing nearer, online polling databases, which crunch polling statistic to come up with a median average, have become more useful to sort out how the election looks to be. The first database I looked at is Real Clear Politics. Real Clear Politics brings together polling data, adjust the numbers to account for poll sample sizes, and puts out an average spread to show the state of the race, assembled into maps and graphs. However, Real Clear Politics has a major problem in that exactly how it creates the numbers it puts out: what the formulas are, which polls are accepted, etc. This lack of clarity makes their numbers slightly dubious, especially to those on the watch for partisan bias. Another problem for RCP is the messy front page, which is cluttered with data, links, maps, and anything else that can fit.
In this regard, then the next database, Pollster, is much better off than RCP, as their front page leads you to an interactive map of the United States, complete with their polling statistics. Pollster, like RCP, has breakdowns of both nation and state level races, but their highly intuitive map makes looking for the information you want a much less daunting challenge. They are also up front with how they acquire their numbers, in a helpful FAQ located right on the map. As a database, it's extremely well-done, and is especially for those people who are not that involved in the political scene.
Lastly, there's FiveThirtyEight, run by baseball statistician Nate Silver. While Pollster and Real Clear Politics focus mainly on the stats in the polling, FiveThirtyEight uses a complex formula to get its numbers, involving the past accuracy of the pollster, analyzing pollster methodology, breaking down the domgraphics of the state being polled, running election simulations, etc. Even with the FAQ to help sort it all out, it's enough data to make a normal person's head spin, contrasting to the more simple methodolgies of the other databases. It requires a lot more understanding of polling methods to fully grasp how the numbers are created, so it's probably not for political newbies. Of course, those more involved will revel in the sheer amount of information that is available on the site, so FiveThirtyEight is much more geared at political junkies than the average voter.
In this regard, then the next database, Pollster, is much better off than RCP, as their front page leads you to an interactive map of the United States, complete with their polling statistics. Pollster, like RCP, has breakdowns of both nation and state level races, but their highly intuitive map makes looking for the information you want a much less daunting challenge. They are also up front with how they acquire their numbers, in a helpful FAQ located right on the map. As a database, it's extremely well-done, and is especially for those people who are not that involved in the political scene.
Lastly, there's FiveThirtyEight, run by baseball statistician Nate Silver. While Pollster and Real Clear Politics focus mainly on the stats in the polling, FiveThirtyEight uses a complex formula to get its numbers, involving the past accuracy of the pollster, analyzing pollster methodology, breaking down the domgraphics of the state being polled, running election simulations, etc. Even with the FAQ to help sort it all out, it's enough data to make a normal person's head spin, contrasting to the more simple methodolgies of the other databases. It requires a lot more understanding of polling methods to fully grasp how the numbers are created, so it's probably not for political newbies. Of course, those more involved will revel in the sheer amount of information that is available on the site, so FiveThirtyEight is much more geared at political junkies than the average voter.
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